Use Case

Recession Probability API

A single REST endpoint that returns the live probability of a U.S. recession within the forward 12-month window, with a confirmation layer that exposes market regime, Fed stance, and cycle-position signals in the same response.

What the endpoint returns

GET /api/v1/model/probability returns a composite recession probability, a trend indicator, and a model confidence rating. A nested confirmation block adds a UI-friendly risk color, a plain-English recommendation, high-risk indicator flags, the detected Fed policy stance, market regime, and cycle-position signals so you can render a decision-ready dashboard from a single call.

curl -H "X-API-Key: brd_your_key" \ https://api.bullrundata.com/api/v1/model/probability # Response (shape) { "probability": 35.5, "trend": "stable", "confidence": "medium", "timestamp": "2026-07-13T18:00:00.000000", "components": { /* proprietary — not shown */ }, "confirmation": { "leading_probability": 32.1, "risk_color": "yellow", "recommendation": "Mixed signals require caution.", "high_risk_indicators": [], "fed_stance": "neutral", "fed_funds_rate": 3.64, "market_regime": "mid_cycle", "real_gdp_growth": {"value": 2.1, "signal": "expansion"}, "industrial_production": {"value": 0.3, "signal": "expansion"}, "employment_level": {"value": 0.15, "signal": "expansion"}, "real_income": {"value": 0.4, "signal": "expansion"} } }

Snapshot history for backtesting

We retain probability snapshots on a schedule, so GET /api/v1/model/probability/history?range=1y returns a time series of the model itself — useful for backtesting, walk-forward analysis, or plotting a probability chart alongside SPY or GDP.

curl -H "X-API-Key: brd_your_key" \ "https://api.bullrundata.com/api/v1/model/probability/history?range=2y"

Range parameter accepts 1m, 3m, 6m, 1y on the free tier. Paid tiers extend the window.

Common integrations

Dashboard widgets: render the probability and risk color in a fintech dashboard, wealth-management app, or macro newsletter.
Alert automation: configure a webhook via /api/v1/alerts/configure to fire when the probability crosses a threshold.
AI agents: the recession_probability MCP tool lets Claude or ChatGPT query the live probability during a conversation.
Trading systems: use the probability and confirmation signals as regime inputs to a rules-based allocation model or risk-parity portfolio.

Related resources

Glossary: Recession Probability — background on recession probability models
Glossary: Yield Curve — the single most-cited recession signal
Glossary: Sahm Rule — real-time labor-market recession indicator
API Documentation — full REST reference

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